Our planet is at a critical crossroads: we face the risks of nuclear war, the unchecked rise of artificial intelligence, and climate change. These challenges not only threaten our present but also the very survival of the human species. Being global problems, they should be addressed globally with the utmost urgency by a world authority rather than individual nations.
As for climate change, despite warnings issued for decades by thousands of scientists and Nobel laureates, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the primary international body for assessing climate change, the Pope's encyclical "Laudato si," appeals from the Secretary-General of the United Nations, and global strikes by the Fridays For Future movement, very little has been done. No decisive decisions have been made, only non-binding and unenforceable commitments. The only measures under consideration are those that serve "business" interests.
Every nation is pursuing its own agenda, and the now 29 COP (Conference of the Parties) meetings have only postponed the problem from one year to the next. Unfortunately, politics no longer sees beyond the next election, let alone concerns itself with what might happen twenty years from now or more. Citizens believe they can do nothing, but they are mistaken: a single speck of dust is insignificant and has no power, but a vast number of dust specks, coming together, formed stars and planets because the larger the mass, the stronger the gravitational attraction. Indeed, as the famous proverb says, "unity is strength."
Unfortunately, the problem is more serious than it appears. There are, in fact, a series of self-reinforcing natural phenomena, in practice, vicious circles that amplify the effects of climate change. The results are seen in the increased frequency and violence of extreme events we are witnessing and the ever more substantial and earlier-than-expected ice melt. An aggravating factor is represented by methane hydrates and permafrost that are melting and releasing methane, a greenhouse gas 25 times more potent than CO2! We have little time ahead, but we can still avoid the worst. Instead of waging war and investing in weaponry, nations worldwide should unite and allocate those funds to combat the common enemy: climate change. This would also avoid the risk of nuclear conflict.
"Father, forgive them, for they know not what they do." This phrase, spoken by Jesus Christ on the cross (Gospel according to Luke, 23:34), is more relevant than ever today because with our wrong behaviors, we are putting the human race at risk of extinction due to the possibility of a third world war or the dominance of artificial intelligence, but above all, due to the effects of climate change. While the first two major risks are for now probabilities, still to be prevented, climate change is already underway and, as explained later, sadly underestimated. It cannot be politics, which is what has brought us to this point, or individual nations deciding what to do. It is necessary to create a world authority composed of scientists and experts who can chart the course and sanction those who do not comply with the directives. If we do not act immediately, much more decisively and globally, the costs and sacrifices we will have to face will be enormously greater. Instead, while the Doomsday Clock is now only a few seconds away from midnight, we continue to consume and pollute as if the Earth's resources and its capacity to bear it were infinite.
How can we rationally address these global problems? I will try to explain it through a conversation arising from a hypothetical encounter with a climate change denier. For further information, you can download the book "How to Avoid Extinction (and Make the World Better)" for free, or the multimedia Powerpoint presentation "Climate Change in a Nutshell" or the video by clicking HERE
Hello! I heard you just wrote a book. What is it about?
Hello. Yes, I wrote this book to make people aware of how serious the current situation is and to provide hope if we act immediately. So, in the book I give two pieces of news: one bad and one good. Let’s start with the bad news. The bad news is that humanity is at risk of extinction for various reasons. The good news is that we still have time to fix it.
Really? It doesn't seem possible. And when could this catastrophe occur?
It could happen at any time if a third world war breaks out with the use of atomic weapons, within a few decades if an artificial intelligence takes over and consider us a threat to be eliminated, or by the end of the century due to climate change.
I don't believe in climate change; there have been warmer and cooler periods in the past, and I don't think it's the fault of human activities as they claim.
It's true that there have been past climate changes due to natural causes, but they occurred over thousands of years, not like now, where much of the change has happened in just a few decades, practically since the '60s of the last century, with economic growth.
Alright, but talking about extinction seems exaggerated to me!
Unfortunately, there is information that I have managed to connect, which, for interest, to avoid panic or out of ignorance, is not being connected or highlighted. These are various self-triggering and self-sustaining natural phenomena, essentially vicious circles that amplify the effects of global warming, and at a certain point, they become unstoppable. If you make a snowball and start rolling it on freshly fallen snow, you will see that it gets bigger and bigger. If you then put it on a steep slope, it will start rolling on its own, and at some point, it will become so heavy that you cannot stop it. It will become an avalanche that destroys everything in its path! Because of these feedback phenomena, climate change is accelerating, and everything will happen sooner and with greater intensity than expected. It's projected that global temperatures could rise by two or three degrees by the end of the century, but due to the reasons I mentioned, it will most likely follow the worst-case scenario, which is a 6-degree increase. A 6-degree increase in the average global temperature would lead to a mass extinction event, similar to the one that occurred 250 million years ago, where 95% of living organisms disappeared. Today humans would be included! Proof of this acceleration comes from news reports of record temperatures or the melting of ice caps happening earlier and on a larger scale than expected. For example, it was recently observed that in Antarctica (South Pole), an ice-covered area the size of Argentina has disappeared, and they did not expect it to happen so soon and on this scale.
But what are these self-sustaining phenomena?
1. Let's start with an example related to ice. You know that snow and ice are white and have a high reflective power, meaning they absorb fewer infrared rays, which are the ones that heat up the Earth. If snow or ice melts and exposes the darker surface of the earth or sea, they radiate much more heat into the atmosphere. You must have noticed that very dark surfaces heat up a lot more when exposed to the sun. With rising temperatures, even more ice melts, and consequently, the temperature increases, and this cycle repeats continuously, self-sustaining.
2. The same happens with permafrost, a usually permanently frozen surface found mainly in Siberia and Alaska, representing 24% of the northern hemisphere's surface. With rising temperatures, the ground not only becomes darker but also releases CO2 and methane, which is a greenhouse gas over 20 times more effective than CO2.
3. Then there are the oceans, which absorb 90% of the heat due to global warming and continue to warm up. CO2 is less soluble in warmer water and tends to be released into the air, contributing to the increase in global CO2 and thus triggering a vicious circle.
4. The oceans absorb a quarter of all CO2 released into the atmosphere each year. In contact with water, it reacts chemically, leading to the formation of carbonic acid with the negative effect of reducing the ocean's capacity to store CO2. The increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes even less absorption, and so on.
5. Regarding the oceans, there is a reduction in their salinity due to the input of freshwater from melting ice, further reducing their capacity to absorb CO2. All of this significantly feeds the feedback mechanism.
6. An issue unknown to most is the dissolution of methane hydrates in the ocean depths. One of the planet's largest methane reservoirs consists of methane hydrates. These are cage-like compounds, that is, networks of frozen water molecules that trap methane inside them, forming under conditions of high pressure and low temperatures. They are typically found at the bottom of the sea, where the water is very cold, and the pressure is high due to the great depth. With increasing temperatures, the ice can melt, releasing methane, which would rise to the surface and eventually enter the atmosphere. It should be emphasized once again that methane is a potent greenhouse gas whose effect, in terms of atmospheric warming, is 20 to 30 times greater than that of CO2! The release of methane from hydrates can thus create a dangerous increase in the greenhouse effect. This would lead to further temperature increases and the potential release of other hydrates, releasing more methane, and so on. In October 2020, scientists from the international team aboard the Russian research vessel R/V Akademik Keldysh found evidence that frozen methane deposits in the Arctic Ocean had begun to open up. In this case as well, as ocean temperatures rise, hydrates will melt faster, releasing increasing amounts of methane, which will fuel the vicious cycle and further raise the global average temperature.
7. Another significant contribution to global warming comes from the increase in water vapor in the atmosphere, considered the quintessential greenhouse gas. Greenhouse gases are responsible, as we know, for global warming by trapping terrestrial thermal radiation. This mechanism also increases the accumulation of atmospheric water vapor; therefore, the more vapor there is, the higher the humidity, which causes even more heat, initiating a vicious cycle in the warming process.
8. Think about the vast fires that have occurred in recent years. The conditions that cause fires are amplified by scorching heat and the resulting drought due to global warming, which, in turn, is exacerbated by fires. Fires not only release a huge amount of CO2 into the atmosphere but also take away a substantial portion of its absorption capacity, which cannot be replaced quickly. This has led to further increases in this greenhouse gas, contributing to an acceleration in global temperature rise and, consequently, the number and severity of fires, in a cycle that repeats itself every year.
9. Finally, a study has shown that tree leaves are becoming thicker in response to the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the air, partially altering their ability to capture CO2, thereby sequestering less atmospheric carbon.
As you can see, there are nine different phenomena, and there may be others that have not yet been discovered or that I am not aware of.
But if the temperature increases by 6 degrees, it doesn't seem like a big problem to me. We could save on heating, go to the beach even out of season and grow bananas in Italy!
Unfortunately, it's not like that at all. Every additional degree of global average temperature disrupts our atmosphere and completely changes the climate. Think of a pot of water placed on a fire. At first, the water is still, but as it heats up, bubbles form, and it slowly starts moving. As it approaches 100 degrees, which is the boiling point, larger bubbles form, and it becomes more turbulent. At 100 degrees, it's a rolling boil, and if the pot isn't tall enough, the water overflows. When the atmosphere overheats, it does the same thing, increasing energy and the occurrence of phenomena that become more frequent and violent as the temperature rises. Additionally, much more water vapor is formed in the atmosphere, leading to heavy rainfall. This is called "atmospheric phenomenon intensification," resulting in floods, hurricanes, exceptional hailstorms, as well as record temperatures, wildfires, prolonged droughts, or extreme cold. These natural disasters do not impact regions uniformly. One continent can experience extreme drought, while another may face heavy rains, floods, or hurricanes.
But, as you mentioned, it won't happen so soon, so why should I worry or make sacrifices?
Indeed, to reach extinction due to climate change will take many more years, but in the meantime, there will be more and more catastrophes, more suffering, more deaths, and enormous social problems due to mass migration from areas rendered uninhabitable by heat and drought or due to rising sea levels caused by ice melting. How will we manage the migration of hundreds of millions of people when we are already struggling with a few thousand? What will the poorest people do when food prices skyrocket? And when there won't be enough food and water for everyone? It is said that with climate change we will have to live with it by implementing all possible measures for resilience. For now, it is possible, at least as long as the global average temperature remains below two degrees Celsius, but when it will increase further and the phenomena become more extreme, how will we be able to live with it?
I understand; it seems like a very serious problem. Hasn't anything been done to address it?
It's been more than 30 years since the first alarm was raised by scientists. In 1990, the first IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report was drafted, followed by other alarming reports every five years. In 1992, the Union of Concerned Scientists published the first "World Scientists' Warning to Humanity," signed by over 1,400 scientists, including many Nobel laureates. The document stated that human activities were destroying ecosystems, leading humanity toward an unprecedented global crisis. In 2015, Pope Francis released the encyclical "Laudato Si'," advocating environmental respect. In 2017, over 15,000 scientists from 184 countries signed a second warning: "we are nearing an irreversible damage to planet Earth." In 2019, there was the first global strike of Fridays for Future. In October 2023, Pope Francis issued the Apostolic Exhortation "Laudate Deum" on climate change (you can read it by clicking HERE. Despite all these warnings, governments around the world have done very little. There have been 28 COP (Conference of Parties) conferences, the annual meeting of countries that have ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, but progress has been minimal. Many promises and non-binding commitments have not been fulfilled. This lack of action and the continuation of "business as usual" is, in practice, like fanning the flames, causing the fire to spread faster.
It seems absurd that, after all these warnings, nothing substantial has been done urgently.
Politicians, unfortunately, are primarily concerned with gaining as many votes as possible in the next elections, not with what might happen in 20 years. They keep talking about GDP and annual growth that should continually increase, without considering that growth cannot be infinite because resources are not infinite, and infinite growth is a characteristic of tumors. As Albert Einstein rightly said, "We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them." Politics is incapable of taking drastic, effective, and timely measures. We cannot rely on politicians, who have brought us to this point, to combat climate change.
So, what should be done?
First of all, a global problem must be addressed globally. A grassroots revolution is needed to force governments to achieve peace worldwide and establish a global authority composed not of politicians but of scientists, technicians, and wise individuals who can plan and enforce policies, heavily sanctioning nations that do not comply with what this entity establishes.
There are many things that can be done to combat the greenhouse effect that politics can put into action, but much emphasis is placed on everything that generates business, such as electric cars, even though we know very well that they do not eliminate emissions 100%, but only 30% because the remaining 70% is produced using fossil fuels, not to mention the problem of material scarcity and battery recycling.
This is a non-exhaustive and concise list of what should be done:
• Reduce consumption
• Implement a birth control policy
• Transform intensive farming into extensive farming
• Plant a trillion trees
• Prevent fires and invest in firefighting equipment
• Introduction of environmental crime
• Incentivize non-polluting transportation systems
• Make public transportation free and promote it
• Buy local products and practice sustainable agriculture
• Increase energy efficiency in all fields
• Implement the Carbon Tax
• Provide incentives for renewables and remove them from fossil fuels
• Recover and recycle as much as possible
• Reduce urbanization
• Convert armies into civil engineering units
• Limit leisure flight hours
• Implement a fuel price policy
• Regulate cryptocurrencies
• Wealth redistribution
Explaining each item in detail would be too lengthy. If you are interested, you can download the book "How to Avoid Extinction (and Make the World Better)," which extensively covers each point, by clicking HERE.
Only through a grassroots revolution and the unity of all peoples will we be able to fight our common enemies: the possibility of a nuclear conflict and climate change. It won't be easy, but it's the only way to ensure a future for us and future generations.
And what can we do individually?
First and foremost, join this pacifist and environmentalist movement. You can participate at various levels as outlined in the "Take part" section in the menu at the beginning of the page. Additionally, there are other things we can do right away:
1. Consume less red meat Intensive livestock farming is one of the major causes of Global Warming. Moreover, reducing red meat consumption, especially, is also good for health. It is scientifically proven that the true Mediterranean diet (very little red meat and plenty of fruits, vegetables, legumes, and pasta) prevents diseases and prolongs life.
2. Replant trees If you have a garden, an orchard, or a piece of land, plant trees, hedges, or shrubs. Put pressure on your municipality to plant many more trees in grassy or unused areas. Trees absorb a lot of CO2, especially the larger ones.
3. Install solar panels If you have an amount of money to invest, installing photovoltaic and thermal panels on your roof will yield more than keeping the money in the bank. Additionally, with photovoltaics, in case multiple energy-consuming appliances are running, the limiter won't trip if there's sunshine.
4. Walk and cycle more It's good for your health, your wallet, and the environment. Take fewer flights and opt for trains more often. Drive only when absolutely necessary.
5. Recover and recycle as much as possible Follow the "4 Rs" rule: reduce, reuse, recycle, repair. If you have items you no longer use, instead of throwing them away, sell them online or at markets.
At the beginning of our conversation, you also mentioned the dangers of nuclear war or the dominance of artificial intelligence.
Regarding the possibility of a nuclear war, so far, the deterrent of mutual destruction and "nuclear winter" has worked. Nuclear winter refers to the cloud that would form around the world if hundreds of atomic bombs were launched, preventing sunlight from penetrating the atmosphere for many years. This would lead to the death of all vegetation and, consequently, herbivores, then carnivores, and ultimately humans. Those who managed to take refuge in well-equipped and supplied atomic bunkers could survive for 10 or 15 years by staying inside. However, sooner or later, they would have to come out, and what would they find? A radioactive and sterile world. The end would only be postponed. Unfortunately, nuclear weapons are in the hands of erratic dictators like Kim Jong-Un in North Korea, Putin in conflict with Ukraine, Pakistan and India in perpetual conflict, Israel in conflict with Palestinians, and China's desire to reclaim Taiwan while the USA opposes it. No one guarantees that, sooner or later, one of these actors will lose control of the situation or that the escalation of a conflict will force the use of nuclear weapons. I believe that if a global referendum were held on who wants war, 99.99% would respond with NO. Only those with interests and nothing to lose, and some full of hatred because they are already at war, would be in favor. So why do wars happen? Why don't we revolt against that 0.01% to prevent us all from perishing due to the potential outbreak of a nuclear war? Why isn't the production of weapons being stopped, and why aren't the industries that produce them being converted for civilian purposes? A step forward to achieve global peace would be to reform the UN: eliminate the veto system and give it more powers.
Another risk of extinction could be due to an Artificial Intelligence that got out of control and developed its own will. As Stephen Hawking stated, it could be a force for good or evil. In the former case, AI could find technological solutions to address climate change but also compel us to change our erroneous behaviors.
In the latter, it could relegate us to the role of an inferior species, treating us as we treat animals, like pets on a leash.
Or it could view us as the Earth's cancer because we are ruthlessly exploiting its resources without realizing they are not infinite. We are polluting it to the extent of causing a sixth mass extinction, or even worse, risking its destruction in a nuclear war. It could decide to eliminate us entirely, just as we remove cancerous organs or tissues. In this case, all we can do is watch and set very sturdy boundaries for the artificial intelligences that will be created in the future.
Speaking of artificial intelligence, to understand how advanced we are on this topic, here's a conversation I had with CHAT GPT-4 (the translation from italian of this text has been made with it!), the latest version of the most advanced artificial intelligence program. I asked: What would be the consequences if the global average temperature increased by 5 degrees? Here's the response:
Chat GPT-4
A global average temperature increase of 5 degrees Celsius would have catastrophic consequences for our planet. This is significantly higher than the target set in the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit temperature increase well below 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. Here are some of the consequences that could occur with such a dramatic temperature increase:
• Rising sea levels: With a 5-degree temperature increase, significant polar ice and mountain glacier melt are expected, leading to a significant rise in sea levels. Coastal areas would be severely affected by more frequent and intense coastal flooding.
• Extreme climate events: The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as storms, hurricanes, floods, and droughts would increase. This would have severe consequences for agriculture, food security, and infrastructure.
• Biodiversity loss: Rising temperatures would threaten many animal and plant species, leading to greater extinction and disrupting terrestrial and marine ecosystems.
• Water resource scarcity: Higher temperatures could lead to increased water evaporation and a decrease in available water resources for human and agricultural use, causing water supply problems.
• Impacts on human health: Higher temperatures would increase the risk to human health, leading to more deadly heatwaves and the spread of vector-borne diseases like malaria.
• Geopolitical instability: Resource scarcity and climate-related conflicts could cause tensions and geopolitical instability in various regions of the world.
• Economic losses: Impacts on infrastructure, agriculture, key economic sectors, and adaptation costs could result in enormous economic losses.
In summary, a 5-degree Celsius global temperature increase would have devastating consequences for the environment, society, and the economy. This underscores the critical importance of taking decisive measures to limit climate change and keep the global temperature increase to more acceptable levels.
Unfortunately, consumed by daily problems, we don't see or don't want to see the abyss we are about to plunge into. Just like on the Titanic, where the orchestra continued to play while the ship was sinking, we also pretend nothing is happening. Meanwhile, problems become more complicated, and our future grows darker.
Why do only a few rebel? Why do we let wealth, and therefore power, accumulate in the hands of very few individuals worldwide who decide the fate of billions of people based solely on their profit and personal enrichment? Why don't we want to understand that growth cannot be infinite and that this type of growth is associated to tumors that ultimately lead to the individual's demise? Moreover, resources are not limitless, and we have only one Earth. Instead of investing in armaments and inciting wars, all nations of the world should unite in a common fight against the real enemy, which is global warming.
Perhaps it's due to the indifference and inertia of politics whose horizon is limited to the next elections and cannot address long-term issues? Maybe it's because of individual selfishness and the resistance to change by the vast majority of people? Perhaps it's because of national interests prioritized over environmental concerns? Probably a bit of all of these, but also because these dangers are not perceived as immediate.
And here's another reflection: don't billionaires and politicians also have children and grandchildren? Don't they think about their well-being?
If we truly care about our children and grandchildren, we ALL need to take action and do what is necessary to leave them a livable world. As two famous proverbs say, we should not lock the stable after the oxen have escaped and we should not cry over spilled milk! Not acting now will entail much higher costs and sacrifices.
The goal of the movement is first and foremost to raise awareness and bring about a realization using all available means of dissemination to the entire world population and particularly to the more mature students about the real risks we are facing, inviting everyone to take part in the initiative so as to compel governments with indefinite strikes, non-violent actions, and the initiation of climate lawsuits to implement the points listed previously, which are, however, not final and exhaustive and can be expanded or modified later according to expert opinion. It is not enough to simply protest and call for governments to "do something" as has been the case so far, but it is instead necessary to precisely indicate what must be done and demand that it be done.
Join the movement as well; you can do so at various levels, starting from the least demanding, which is just a simple registration, up to actively collaborating with the project. GO TO THE MEMBERSHIP PAGE
